From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens
Texas factory activity declined in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell to -5.2, posting its first negative reading in nearly two years.
Other measures of current manufacturing activity also reflected contraction in March. The new orders index pushed further into negative territory, coming in at -16.1, and the growth rate of orders index remained negative for a fifth consecutive month but edged up to -15.3 in March. The shipments and capacity utilization indexes slipped to more negative readings, -8.7 and -6.4, respectively.
Perceptions of broader business conditions were rather pessimistic for a third month in a row. The general business activity index declined 6 points to -17.4 in March, while the company outlook index was largely unchanged at -4.
Labor market indicators reflected slight employment declines and shorter workweeks. The March employment index dipped to -1.8, its first negative reading since May 2013.
emphasis added
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:
Click on graph for larger image.
The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (light blue, through March), and five Fed surveys are averaged (dark blue, through March) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through February (right axis).
Much of the recent regional weakness has been related to the declines in oil prices. The ISM index is a national survey, however it seems likely the ISM index will be weaker in March.
The ISM Manufacturing Index for March will be released on Wednesday, April 1st, and the consensus is for a decrease to 52.5 from 52.9 in February.