Q2 GDP Forecasts: Moving on Down
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent on July 14, down from 2.6 percent on July 11. The forecast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2017:Q2 and 1.8% for 2017:Q3.From Merrill Lynch:
Core retail sales disappointed for a third straight month, declining 0.1% mom in June after no growth in May. Expectations were for a strong 0.3% acceleration. ... The industrial production report later in the day revealed no change in utilities production, was below our assumption and suggests weaker utilities consumption. On balance, these data sliced 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing us down to 1.9% qoq saar.CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth will be around 2% in Q2.