Goldman: November Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:



We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 225k in November, above consensus of +195k. In addition to a firm pace of underlying job growth, our forecast reflects some additional normalization in hurricane-affected regions, as well as above-trend retail job growth associated with the early Thanksgiving. The arrival of over 200k Puerto Ricans in Florida may also boost payroll growth this month.

We estimate the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, as the brisk downtrend in recent months seems due a pause. For average hourly earnings, we estimate +0.3% month-over-month (+2.7% yoy) with risks skewed to the upside, reflecting a boost from unwinding hurricane distortions and somewhat favorable calendar effects.
emphasis added

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