Opinions Uncensored

Friday Night: Kudlow makes me laugh ... again!

Larry Kudlow wrote an absurd piece at CNBC today.Of course Kudlow is usually wrong and frequently absurd ... as an example, in June 2005 Kudlow wrote "The Housing Bears are Wrong Again" and called me (or people like me) "bubbleheads".Homebuilders led the stock parade this week with a fantastic...

Q3 GDP: Investment Contributions

This is one of my favorite GDP graphs. The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment...

Q3 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report today.Investment in single family structures is now back to being the top category for residential investment (see first graph).  Home improvement was the top category for twenty one consecutive quarters following the...

Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

It's a world truly gone mad.


In a surprise move today, the Bank of Japan announced further quantitative easing, dominated by long-term Japanese government bonds. The BoJ also announced it and would triple annual purchases of exchange traded funds and property investment trusts.


BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda defied objections from four fellow board members, arguing that a tax-hit economy and a lower oil price have led to...

Scott Sumner Says Silly Things

Scott Sumner is out with a new post making some rather bold assertions about last night’s BOJ announcement which sent the Nikkei Index surging 4.8%.  Specifically, he says this action discredits Keynesian economics, RBC theory, and the theory of beggar-thy-neighbor policies.  He says: “Yes,...

Preliminary: 2015 Housing Forecasts

The NAHB released their 2015 housing forecast today. Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales will be around 440 thousand, and...