Opinions Uncensored

Are We In a Permanent Liquidity Trap?

Paul Krugman is stealing my thunder on the interest rate call that wrecked PIMCO and Bill Gross.  Like myself, Krugman was loudly declaring that interest rates had no reason to rise when QE2 ended and that called the Gross rationale into question.  Paul Krugman was dead right.  He said we were...

Some Thoughts on Static vs Dynamic Projections

We all have to make projections about the future in just about everything that we do.  It’s just a fact of life.  When one invests their money in certain instruments the ability of those instruments to meet your financial goals will depend on a certain degree of projection about the future and...

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

A few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now...