Opinions Uncensored

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 21, 2019.... The Refinance...

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was 0.63%, down from 0.65% in April. Freddie's rate is down from 0.87% in May 2018.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since...

Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

A few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. 3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the seasonal change (second graph below)...

"A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell"

Live video for A Conversation with Jerome H. PowellSpeech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook and monetary policy review The Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures—what is often referred to as our "independence." Congress chose to insulate the Fed this way because it had seen...

A few Comments on May New Home Sales

New home sales for May were reported at 626,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for April were revised up slightly, and sales for March were revised down.Earlier: New Home Sales decreased to 626,000 Annual Rate in May.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows new...

New Home Sales decreased to 626,000 Annual Rate in May

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 626 thousand. The previous three months were revised down slightly, combined."Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 626,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.8 percent below the revised April rate of 679,000 and is 3.7 percent below the May 2018 estimate of 650,000 emphasis added. New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. Even with...

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Speech

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Catch a Break to Remain Near Long-Term Lows - Mortgage rates were generally flat today, depending on the lender. Some were noticeably better while others were a hair worse. In both cases, rates are very close to the lowest levels since late 2016. Changes from Friday would most likely be measured in terms of upfront costs as opposed to differences in the quoted "note rate" itself (the rate most people are talking about when they talk about mortgage rates). [Most Prevalent Rates 30YR FIXED - 3.625% OR 3.875%] emphasis added. Tuesday: At 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. The consensus is for a 2.5%...

Housing Inventory Tracking

Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here. And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases. I don't have a crystal ball,...