Opinions Uncensored

Schedule for Week of Feb 25, 2018

The key economic reports this week are the second estimate of Q4 GDP, January new home sales, February auto sales, and the December Case-Shiller house price index.For manufacturing, the February ISM manufacturing index, and the February Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be...

Oil Rigs "Oil rig counts take a breather"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Feb 23, 2018:• Total US oil rigs took an anticipated breather this week, +1 to 799• Horizontal oil rigs were up, +1 to 697...• The oil price continues to recover• If rig count additions continue on our forecast trajectory,...

House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index

During the housing bubble and subsequent bust, I noted that the median house price could be distorted by the mix of houses sold. I preferred to use the repeat sales indexes from the FHFA, Case-Shiller and Corelogic (and others). Now that most of the distortion from the bubble is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the median (and mean) house price data for existing home sales from the NAR, compared to the Case-Shiller National index. The first graph show the NAR existing home sales median and mean prices since 1999 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)...

Duy's Fed Watch: "Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path"

From Professor Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path Fed speakers continue to reiterate that policy remains on a gradual path of tightening. So far, the inflation data and brightening economy has more emboldened their commitment to gradual rate hikes than a faster pace of hikes..

Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 FebruaryThe U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 11-17 February 2018, according to data from STR.In comparison with the week of 12-18 February 2017,...