Opinions Uncensored

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales below 17 Million SAAR in May

The automakers will report May vehicle sales on Thursday, June 1st.Note: There were 25 selling days in May 2017, up from 24 in May 2016.From Reuters: U.S. auto sales seen up 0.5 percent in May: JD Power and LMC U.S. auto sales in May will edge up 0.5 percent from a year earlier, despite...

Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: [T]he data [today] pushed down 2Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 2.5% qoq saar. The main drag was from the weak durables report, while revisions to 1Q GDP caused some modest shifts in the 2Q components. From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.7 percent on May 26, down from 4.1 percent on May 16. The forecast for second-quarter real residential investment growth fell from 8.3 percent to 3.1 percent after Tuesday's housing related releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and...

Q1 GDP Revised up to 1.2% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Second Estimate)Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP...

Friday: GDP

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.9% decrease in durable goods orders.• Also at 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2017 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.8% annualized in Q1, up from...

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in April

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 46 states and decreased in four, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. In the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states and decreased in nine, for a one-month diffusion index of 64. Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment...

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Modestly" in May

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded moderately with strong expectations for future activity. “After slowing from a rapid rate of growth in February and March, we’ve seen more moderate growth the past two months,” said Wilkerson. “But firms are about as optimistic about future growth as they’ve ever been.” The month-over-month composite index was 8 in May, up from 7 in April but down from 20 in March. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 234,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 232,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,250, a...

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

Some interesting analysis from Josh Lehner at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis: States at Full Employment, A Prime-Age EPOP Story. The key economic question economists are trying to answer today is whether or not the U.S. economy is at full employment. Given it is more a concept then a hard calculation, you look for signs in the data that suggest the economy is there. In terms of jobs and the unemployment rate, there is no question the data do suggest this. However, at least nationally, wage growth is still relatively slow, albeit picking up some, and inflation remains consistently below target. Here in Oregon we’re checking more of the boxes than the U.S. overall. Not only have we seen stronger wage gains, but we got the labor...