Opinions Uncensored

Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.A few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal...

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 47 states in March

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 96. In the past month, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 92.
emphasis added...

Chemical Activity Barometer "Eases" in April

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Eases Following Six Consecutive Monthly Gains; Trends Suggest Growth into Early 2019The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created...

"Mortgage Rates Push Farther Into 4-Year Highs"

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Push Farther Into 4-Year HighsMortgage rates moved somewhat higher again today, thus pushing them...

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in FebruaryIt has been eleven years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 8.2% above...

A few Comments on March New Home Sales

New home sales for March were reported at 694,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well above the consensus forecast, and the three previous months were revised up, combined. Earlier: New Home Sales increase to 694,000 Annual Rate in March.This graph shows new home sales for 2017 and 2018 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Sales are up 10.3% through March compared to the same period in 2017. Solid growth, and the next five months will be an easy comparison to 2017. And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales. Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next several years.
The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales...

New Home Sales increase to 694,000 Annual Rate in March

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 694 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined."Sales of new single-family houses in March 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000, according to estimates...