Opinions Uncensored

Schedule for Week of July 23, 2017

The key economic reports this week are the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, New and Existing Home sales for June, and Case-Shiller house prices.The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected.----- Monday, July 24th -----10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for June from...

Oil Rigs decline slightly

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on July 21, 2017:• Total US oil rigs were down 1 to 764• Horizontal oil rigs were down 2 to 653...• $45 WTI seems sufficient to restrain US oil rig count growth• However, shale well productivity yoy continues to surge based on...

Q2 GDP Forecasts

From Merrill Lynch: Next week is the annual 2017 revision to the NIPAs, which will update real GDP growth and PCE inflation since 2014. ... Updates to the underlying source data and methodology are likely to result in only slight changes to past GDP growth. The story for inflation is less...

Goldman: FOMC Preview

The FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and no change to policy is expected.Here are a few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: FOMC Preview We do not expect any policy changes at the July FOMC meeting and expect only limited changes to the...

BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 10 states in June, Two States at New Series Lows

Unemployment rates were lower in June in 10 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Twenty-seven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 23 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 4.4 percent, was little changed from May but was 0.5 percentage point lower than in June 2016. Colorado and North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rates in June, 2.3 percent each. The rates in North Dakota (2.3 percent) and Tennessee (3.6 percent) set new series lows. ... Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.8 percent, followed by New Mexico...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million in June, , down 0.5% from May’s preliminary pace and up 2.0% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data suggest that there was a smaller YOY decline in the number of homes for sale in June compared to May, and I project that the NAR’s estimate of the number of existing homes for sale in June will be 1.97 million, up 0.5% from May’s preliminary estimate and down 6.6% from last May’s estimate. Finally, I project that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing...

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies mostly unchanged in June

From Black Knight: Black Knight’ First Look at June 2017 Mortgage Data: Delinquencies Hold Steady Despite Seasonal Pressure; Low Interest Rates Help Prepayments Continue to Climb. Despite upward seasonal pressure, mortgage delinquencies held steady at 3.8 percent in June. While total non-current inventory saw a three percent seasonal rise over Q2 2017, the inventory of serious delinquencies (loans 90 or more days past due) and active foreclosures fell by seven percent. In total, serious delinquencies and active foreclosures have declined by 17 percent (nearly 200,000 loans) this year. Low interest rates helped push prepayment activity up another 5.3 percent in June, following May’s 23 percent rise.According to Black Knight's First Look report for June, the percent...

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Region continues to grow but at a slower pace" in July

Earlier from the Philly Fed: July 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continues to grow but at a slower pace, according to results from the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, , employment, and work hours remained positive but fell from their readings in June. Respondents also reported a moderation of price pressures this month. Firms remained generally optimistic about future growth. More than one-third of the manufacturers expect to add to their payrolls over the next six months...