Opinions Uncensored

Update: More 2015 Housing Forecasts

Update: I've added the MBA and Goldman Sachs forecasts.  Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of...

Update: Business Cycles and Markets

For fun ... recently we've seen another recession call for 2015, this time from the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center (following their an incorrect recession call in 2011). Over the last few years, there were several incorrect recession calls from ECRI and others. I disagreed with all of them,...

Investing and the Intertemporal Conundrum

I went to see Interstellar last night.  I won’t ruin it for you, but if you’re in to things like time travel, intergalactic travel and space ships then you should probably go see it.  One of the central themes of the movie is relative time discrepancy.  Due to gravitational anomalies time in...

Sunday Night Futures

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Lower oil prices and the U.S. economyLast year Americans consumed 135 billion gallons of gasoline. That means that if prices stay where they are, consumers will have an extra $108 billion each year to spend on other things. And if the historical pattern...

The USA is Literally Falling Apart….

Good segment on 60 Minutes here exploring the very serious problem of America’s failing infrastructure.  Last week I noted that an infrastructure plan should be one of our “no-brainer” policy ideas.  If you want to see just how huge a problem this is then watch the 60 Minutes segment.  It’s...