Opinions Uncensored

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In March 2015, the index was up 4.1% YoY. However the YoY change has only declined slightly over the last six months. As I've noted before, I think...

$500 Million LA Home - Built on Spec

To highlight the enormous and growing income inequality issue, please consider California Dreaming: Record $500 Million Tag on L.A. Home. Nile Niami, a film producer and speculative residential developer, is pouring concrete in L.A.’s Bel Air neighborhood for a compound with a...

Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys for May and the ISM Index

Earlier today the last two regional Fed surveys for May were released. As expected, the Dallas Fed was especially weak due primarily to weakness in the oil sector.From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Contracts FurtherTexas factory activity declined again in May, according to...

Greek Tragedies Are Classics No One Reads Anymore

So here we are again. Greece is back in the news, the country that was fixed to be broken to be fixed again to throw craps. Of course it was never really fixed at all, but that’s not the point here.
How is this time different? Is the EU more ready for Greece to go? Is Greece ready to...

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is Useless

I noticed Noah Smith and John Authers on Twitter discussing how great the Efficient Market Hypothesis is because it explains why indexing works. I responded saying that the EMH really has nothing to do with why indexing works. They didn’t seem to see my point of view so let’s try this again and...