Opinions Uncensored

2 Bullish Macro Indicators

Sometimes it’s easiest to understand the big picture with the simplest indicators.  And two of the more trust ones in the macro arsenal are the PMI reports and the weekly jobless claims reports.  They’re not exactly “real-time”, but when you’re taking the macro view (which is an inherently...

Lawler: Fannie Survey on How Lenders “Adapt” to ATR/QM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:The Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group released the results of a recent survey of senior mortgage executives designed to see how mortgage lenders had and/or would “adapt” to the new Ability-To-Repay (ATR) and Qualified Mortgage (QM) standards...

CCJ Took A Downgrade

I was blasted today when one of my largest positions, CCJ, took a downgrade from Cowen. Why a firm pegging a position to “market perform” when they had it set at “outperform” (it never did) has the power to drop a stock 5% in a session…I have no idea.
Of course...

A Few Comments on Existing Home Sales

The most important number in the NAR report each month is inventory.   This morning the NAR reported that inventory was up 5.8% year-over-year in July.   It is important to note that the NAR inventory data is "noisy" and difficult to forecast based on other data.  The headline NAR inventory...

Rail Traffic Keeps on Chugging Along

Intermodal rail traffic posted a 5.4% gain in the most recent week bringing the 12 week moving average down to 6.1%.  That is a strong reading, but also a 3 month low.  The rate of change is clearly on the decline, however, it remains at levels that are still consistent with economic growth....

Bullshit to cash ratio

Dan here…Yves Smith reminds us that the deals, fines, and reporting on mortgage misconduct need careful interpretation. And a skeptical attitude. (partially re-posted…worth the trip over)
by Yves Smith
Bank Settlement Grade Inflation: High Bullshit to Cash Ratio in $17 Billion Bank of America...