Opinions Uncensored

Friday: New Home Sales

The Inland Empire comes full circle ... from the Chris Kirkham at the LA Times: Strong growth is forecast for Inland Empire [T]he Inland Empire is now the fastest-growing region in Southern California — a trend predicted to continue over the next five years, according to an economic forecast...

Global Inflation Update – Continued Disinflation

Global disinflation has picked up pace in recent months and several regions of the global economy are now on the verge of a full blown deflation. The latest readings on inflation are just about unanimous – there’s widespread disinflation, or a slowing rate of positive inflation. The latest...

Rail Traffic Just Keeps on Chugging

The latest trends in rail traffic showed more of the same that we’ve been seeing for the last few months.  Interestingly, despite the Ebola scare and the brief Europe shock, there was no substantive change in rail trends. The latest weekly reading came in at 3% which is just below the 12 week...

FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios for 2015 Stress Testing

From the FDIC: FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios for 2015 Stress Testing The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released the economic scenarios that will be used by certain financial institutions with total consolidated assets of more than $10 billion for stress tests required...

Equity Shock Absorbers Pass October Test

After nearly nine months of calm, equity market volatility has returned and is threatening investors with the prospect of losing money. We believe the recent episode in US and global stocks reinforces the case for having a strategic allocation to equities that can withstand shocks.

A Few Comments on QE

A few comments on QE:• The FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 on Wednesday October 29th, following the FOMC meeting next week.• Most research shows that the primary impact of QE on interest rates is from the size of the Fed balance sheet ("stock") as opposed to the impact on supply and...

Negative Interest Rates – How’s That Working Out?

Back in June the ECB initiated a small negative interest rate on deposits held at the ECB.  Over the last 5 years we’ve repeatedly heard economists and other pundits say that Central Banks just need to reduce the demand for Excess Reserves by charging a negative interest rate and that this...