Opinions Uncensored

Historical Market Comparisons Are Meaningless

For now, the "bullish case" remains alive and well. The media will go on berating those heretics who dare to point out the risks that prevail. However, the one simple truth is"this time is indeed different." When the crash ultimately comes the reasons will be different than they were in the...

Merrill Lynch Reduces Housing Forecast for 2014

From Michelle Meyer at Merrill Lynch: Will April showers bring May flowers? We have all been waiting for the weather to unleash stronger economic activity, particularly for the housing market. However, the housing data so far have been less than encouraging. We think it will be challenging to...

The Global “Capital” Glut

No, I’m not talking about Piketty hitting the Times bestseller list. And it’s not just wild-eyed lefty Frenchman who are expressing concern about the state of world capital these days. Mitt Romney’s shop was beating this drum loudly more than a year ago.
One of the central takeaways from...

Hotels: Strongest Year since 2000

From HotelNewsNow.com: US hotels report strong weekly RevPAR The U.S. hotel industry posted positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 6-12 April 2014, according to data from STR.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s revenue per available room jumped...

Inflation Expectations in the USA

In case anyone is interested, I put together a lot of stuff I have been doing with inflation expectations into a soft of manuscript here (warning 19 poorly written pages)
The conclusions
Inflation expectations are not anchored. A simple regression model fits both the median Livingston Survey...