ETF Talk

How Stocks Escaped from 3 ‘Unavoidable’ Bear Markets

This bull market has been counted out many times. Just over the past few years, stocks faced three – allegedly – unavoidable bear markets … and escaped all of them.
Here are the three ‘unavoidable’ bear markets, and why stocks escaped:
Unavoidable Rate Hike Bear Market
Starting in 2015, the...

Is the Crude Oil Rally Over?

Déjà vu. Crude oil prices dropped as much as 24% over the past two months. Does this mean the oil rally is over?
Here is a look at various timeframes and indicators to help answer this question.
Longer-term Analysis
The April 24 Profit Radar Report showed the long-term chart below, and stated:...

S&P 500 Update

On July 12, the S&P 500 became overbought and has been wrapped in a tight trading cocoon ever since.
In fact, for 13 trading days, the S&P didn’t move more than 22.5 points. That’s one of the tightest trading ranges in history.

The chart below, published in the July 31 Profit Radar...

Is the Stock Market Rigged? … and a More Important Question

Is the stock market rigged? Many believe it is … and rightfully so.
However, there are more interesting and pertinent questions, such as:
To what extent is the market rigged, and how does it affect me?
Why do allegations of a rigged market sprout up right now?
Different Ways to Rig the Market...

Stock Market Melt-Up Alert?

The S&P 500 is at new all-time highs, so it may be appropriate to call to mind – and then discgard – all the bear market chatter of recent months.
Here is just a small selection of bear market headlines:
Barron’s: “Bracing for a Bear Market” – February 19, 2016
Forbes: “Investor Alert:...

S&P 500 Update – Refocus on What Matters

Brexit! What Brexit? The Brexit reaction doesn’t even register on the monthly S&P 500 chart. ‘A tempest in the teapot’ as the British would say. This is yet another example why we do not focus (and sometimes ignore) news events.

The Brexit vote did cause undeniable ripple effects, but only...

S&P 500 Update

A lot has happened the last week or two, and it appears like the S&P 500 has entered the ‘post panic’ stage. Before we discuss the typical ‘post panic’ pattern, here is a brief recap.
On June 9, we went short the S&P 500 at 2,110. This was our insurance trade against lower prices...

My Worst ‘Mistake’ of the Year

Allow me to tell the painful tale of a perfectly timed short S&P 500 trade. This is a classic example of where doing what is right feels so wrong.
The Short Entry
Via the June 8, Profit Radar Report, I recommended to short the S&P 500. We called this the most promising setup since we...