ETF Talk

US Dollar Chokes Gold, Silver and Oil Movement

Gold, silver and oil haven’t gone anywhere in 2018. Why?

The chart below plots gold, silver and crude oil against the US Dollar Index. The US dollar has been in a tight trading range for most of 2018. Although asset correlations come and go, commodities are traded in US dollars, and the US dollar inactivity likely contributed to the lack of direction in the commodities market.

I assume a dollar breakout will awaken commodities.

The November 29 US dollar update featured the chart below, which projects a more significant low in early 2018...

This is Probably the Most Important Seasonal Pattern of 2018

Seasonality is one of 4 key indicators we analyze (the other 3 are: Money flow, technicals, and investor sentiment). Out of many seasonal patterns, this is probably the most important one for all of 2018.

The 2018 S&P 500 Forecast (part of the Profit Radar Report) highlighted this seasonal pattern (and chart):

“2018 is a mid-term year (based on the 4-year presidential election year cycle. Historically, stocks rally from the mid-year (2018) low to the pre-election year (2019) high (on average 50%). The average S&P 500 gain over the last 5 cycles was 36.8% (see chart for individual cycle gains)...

S&P 500 Update

The February 11 Profit Radar Report featured the chart below and stated that: “Based on Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is followed by wave 4, which is where we are currently at. Waves 4 are generally choppy, range-bound, long-winded, unpredictable corrections that retrace ideally 38.2% of the preceding wave 3. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,536 (reached on Friday). In terms of price, wave 4 has already reached its down side target. In terms of time, wave 4 would be unusually short.” After hitting 2,536 on February 9, the S&P 500 rallied as projected by this chart shown in the February 8 Profit Radar Report (Tuesday’s high at 2,789 was a bit higher than...

S&P 500 Update – Decision Time

The February 8, 2018 Profit Radar Report published the following chart and commentary:
“The S&P 500 moved from the yellow zone into the green buy. Does that mean it’s time to buy? It depends on the time frame. Short-term, potentially yes. The hourly chart shows a 5-wave decline into today’s low. A completed 5-wave move, according to Elliott Wave Theory, generally projects a bounce followed by another leg lower. There were many extended fifth waves on the way up, so there is a distinct possibility that there will be extended fifth waves on the way down.”
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report...

February Mini Meltdown: Warning Signal or Buying Opportunity

What caused the February meltdown? If you are looking for another strong opinion, sorry, you won’t find it here.
Before we address the more important issue – whether now is the time to buy or sell – here is one tell-tale sign (of what contributed to the ‘meltdown’) brought out by the January 29...

S&P 500 Update – The Surprising Implication of Strong Januaries

The S&P 500 just traded in the ‘sweet spot zone’ for over 350 days. What is the sweet spot zone?

It’s above the 200-day SMA, but not more than 10% above the 200-day SMA. While in the sweet spot zone, the S&P has steadily moved higher without overheating. This is extremely rare.

In fact, there are only two other periods similar to this (1965, 1994). Both times the S&P ended the streak by falling below the 200-day SMA. On January 5, for the first time ever, the S&P broke higher (see chart below). What does it mean when the S&P goes from ‘not too hot’ to ‘hot’?

From Not Too Hot to Hot

S&P 500 Update

2017 was one of the most unique years ever, not just for the stock market, also in terms of world events and natural catastrophes.
An almost unprecedented phenomenon was that of strong stock market momentum.
The November 19, 2017 Profit Radar Report pointed out that:
“The S&P 500 was higher...

Dollar, Euro, Gold Update

Dollar Update

The January 2 Profit Radar Report published this chart and long-term US Dollar Index forecast:

“The US Dollar Index could be at or near the end of a 5 ½ year rally. As per Elliott Wave Theory, it is possible to count 5 waves up from the May 2011 low. There are bearish divergences at the December highs, and investor sentiment is in favor of a lower dollar. We are alert for a potential multi-month US dollar decline."
As it turns out, the US Dollar Index actually peaked on January 3, and spent the next 8 months falling lower.
In August/September we were expecting a bottom, but at the time we were not sure how big of a bounce to expect.

In November it became clear that the rally from the September 8 low to the October 27 ...

Stock Market Update: This is the Clearest Chart Right Now

There’s never been a time when articles on have been posted at the snail-pace of about one per month … until now. Unless you are a stock picker, there’s simply been nothing worthwhile to write about. The October 1 Profit Radar Report warned of just such a period of inactivity: “The bullish Elliott Wave Theory count would see stocks grind higher for a number of weeks in a 2 steps forward, 1 step back pattern. A real unexciting, unstimulating and uninspiring grind higher to 2,600+/-. Unless the S&P drops below 2,500, this is now the most likely outcome.” Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says...