ETF Talk

What’s Next: New Highs or Lows?

Even just a quick glance at the S&P 500 chart reveals a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, buyers and sellers. Although there’ve been many – at time violent – swings, there’s been no net progress.
What will we see first, new highs or new lows? Here’s a look at various pieces of market...

S&P 500 Update – Know What to Expect

It’s said that we shouldn’t blame others for disappointing us, but to blame ourselves for expecting too much. The same is true for the stock market.
Expect the Unexpected
Many investors have become disenchanted as stocks are stuck in a rut. But the market always does what it does, it’s our job...

Free Access to the Profit Radar Report

For the first time ever, anyone can get FREE ACCESS to the Profit Radar Report. The last 6 complete Profit Radar Report updates covering the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, XLU, US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, silver, and 30-year Treasuries, TLT are available here. Enjoy!
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as...

Simple, Common Sense S&P 500 Update

For almost two years, investors were spoiled with low volatility and high returns, but recent market action has rattled the cage.
Will there be more ‘cage rattling!’ If so, how much?
Sometimes a simple common sense analysis is the best one. KISS.
The February 11 Profit Radar Report stated...

How to Outsmart a Choppy, Range-bound Market

From January 26 to February 9, the S&P 500 lost as much as 11.84%. This initial freefall was followed by a rollercoaster-like performance.
The large February drop (340 S&P points) expanded the trading range and complicated the search for low-risk S&P 500 entries (see S&P 500...

US Dollar Chokes Gold, Silver and Oil Movement

Gold, silver and oil haven’t gone anywhere in 2018. Why?

The chart below plots gold, silver and crude oil against the US Dollar Index. The US dollar has been in a tight trading range for most of 2018. Although asset correlations come and go, commodities are traded in US dollars, and the US dollar inactivity likely contributed to the lack of direction in the commodities market.

I assume a dollar breakout will awaken commodities.

The November 29 US dollar update featured the chart below, which projects a more significant low in early 2018...

This is Probably the Most Important Seasonal Pattern of 2018

Seasonality is one of 4 key indicators we analyze (the other 3 are: Money flow, technicals, and investor sentiment). Out of many seasonal patterns, this is probably the most important one for all of 2018.

The 2018 S&P 500 Forecast (part of the Profit Radar Report) highlighted this seasonal pattern (and chart):

“2018 is a mid-term year (based on the 4-year presidential election year cycle. Historically, stocks rally from the mid-year (2018) low to the pre-election year (2019) high (on average 50%). The average S&P 500 gain over the last 5 cycles was 36.8% (see chart for individual cycle gains)...

S&P 500 Update

The February 11 Profit Radar Report featured the chart below and stated that: “Based on Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is followed by wave 4, which is where we are currently at. Waves 4 are generally choppy, range-bound, long-winded, unpredictable corrections that retrace ideally 38.2% of the preceding wave 3. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,536 (reached on Friday). In terms of price, wave 4 has already reached its down side target. In terms of time, wave 4 would be unusually short.” After hitting 2,536 on February 9, the S&P 500 rallied as projected by this chart shown in the February 8 Profit Radar Report (Tuesday’s high at 2,789 was a bit higher than...

S&P 500 Update – Decision Time

The February 8, 2018 Profit Radar Report published the following chart and commentary:
“The S&P 500 moved from the yellow zone into the green buy. Does that mean it’s time to buy? It depends on the time frame. Short-term, potentially yes. The hourly chart shows a 5-wave decline into today’s low. A completed 5-wave move, according to Elliott Wave Theory, generally projects a bounce followed by another leg lower. There were many extended fifth waves on the way up, so there is a distinct possibility that there will be extended fifth waves on the way down.”
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report...