ETF Talk

Is Big Tech Underperformance Bearish for Stocks?

Large cap technology stocks – the notorious US stock market ‘alpha male’ – is trailing behind.
The chart below plots the Nasdaq-100 (represented by the QQQ ETF – right graph) against the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite.

QQQ has been stuck in neutral, while the S&P 500 and NYSE move ahead in...

S&P 500 Update – Two Cookies Now?

My worst fear when I first started analyzing markets and publishing my research was FOMO. Fear Of Missing Out … on the next big move.
This was reflected in my market forecasts, which were either full speed forward (prices will soar) or full speed reverse (market will crash).
True, this kind of...

Gold and Silver Bulls Risk Painful Whipsaw

Gold and silver have been on a tear, but there’s reason to be cautious. Here are some facts to consider before following the crowded trade:
Gold Update
Since late December 2015, when we anticipated a tradable low, gold has rallied as much as 25%. Commercial hedgers (considered the ‘smart...

Some Investor Sentiment Indicators Show Excessive Pessimism

There hasn’t been a truly noteworthy investor sentiment extreme since the January/February lows, when the Profit Radar Report recommended buying.
Barron’s rates the iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record.” Click here for Barron’s assessment of the Profit Radar Report.
Last week saw some...

Volatility Ratio Shows Dangerous Complacency

At the end of last week we saw some excessive pessimism (reported here), now we are seeing signs of complacency.
The May 8 Profit Radar Report stated the following: “As long as the bullish RSI divergence and support near 2,040 hold, odds favor either a bounce or rally to new recovery highs. We...

How High Can Oil Go?

Crude oil prices almost doubled since the February low. How much higher can oil rally?
The February 21 Profit Radar Report stated that: “Seasonality is strongly bullish until late April. For anyone interested in trading oil, this is a tempting setup to go long.”
The April 24 Profit Radar Report...

S&P 500 Breaks Below Support

The May 11 Profit Radar Report featured the VIX:VXV ratio (click here for chart and more details) and concluded that: “Today’s S&P 500 reversal after closing the open chart gap neutralizes and reversed the bullish edge discussed Sunday. Potential near-term target: Below 2,040.”
Barron’s...

S&P 500 Abuses Popular Pattern to Fool Investors

It is rare that a particular stock market support level becomes as obvious as 2,040 for the S&P 500.
Since March 18, the S&P touched 2,040 +/- 13 times, and bounced every time.
As of 2,040 wasn’t already obvious enough, it also became the neckline of a head-and shoulders topping...