ETF Talk

S&P 500: Surprisingly ‘Normal and Predictable’

Considering the political cross currents, the S&P 500 has been acting surprisingly normal, even predictable.
In terms of support and resistance levels, the S&P has stopped and accelerated pretty much exactly where it ‘was supposed to.’
The weekly S&P 500 chart below highlights 3...

Are Emerging Market Stocks Ready to Rally?

From January 26 – August 15, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) lost 20.3%. A bear market is commonly defined as a decline of 20% or more. Based on this definition, EEM entered a bear on August 15.
Will the emerging markets bear market continue, or is it a false signal?
Emerging...

Is FAANG Weakness Bearish for Stocks?

The spotlight has been on FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) for much of this bull market, but lately it’s gotten kind of quiet around them. Perhaps that’s because they are actually under-performing the Nasdaq-100.
Is FAANG weakness bearish for stocks?
FAANG vs Nasdaq-100...

US Stocks: 5 Intriguing Charts, 1 Conclusion

Here is a look at the 5 (in my humble opinion) most intriguing and important charts right now. As you will notice, not all charts point in the same direction. Nevertheless, I will conclude with a weight of evidence-based conclusion.
1) S&P 500 Tug of War
The July 15 Profit Radar Report...

S&P 500: Now or Never?

The June 6 bigger picture S&P 500 update showed 3 projections, all of them were bullish.

2 month later, the S&P 500 filled the open chart gap at 2,851.48 (chart gaps act like price magnets) and is within spitting distance of a new all-time high.

As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 is also near a pretty significant resistance cluster. The confluence of trend channels and the January all-time high almost make it seem like it’s ‘now or never’ for bears, but is it? Now or Never?

The July 25 S&P 500 update discussed the tug of war between a massively bullish pattern and bearish divergences. Despite the bearish divergences, the update concluded that: “Further gains are possible while above 2,830 and 2,800, but bearish divergences...

S&P 500 Update: Bullish Triangle vs Bearish Divergences

The S&P 500 is in the midst of a tug of war between a bullish triangle break out and bearish divergences. Who will win, bulls or bears?
Bullish Triangle
The weekly S&P 500 chart below illustrates the bullish triangle potential. Triangle resistance (now support) is around 2,800. The...

Crude Oil Update

As crude oil has been nearing the top of its trend channel, we’ve been looking for low-risk opportunities to short oil.
The proximity to trend channel resistance is not the only reason for our bearish disposition however.

Investors have become increasingly more bullish on oil, and trade seems...

S&P 500 Update – Curveball

On June 6, I published a bigger picture S&P 500 outlook. Since this update builds on the June 6 outlook, you may find it helpful to first read the June 6 bigger picture S&P 500 outlook.
For the past few months we’ve been looking to buy the S&P 500 on dips. We bought the SPDR S&P...

S&P 500 Outlook – The Bigger Picture

From the very beginning, we considered the pullback from the January 26 high to be a temporary correction (wave 4 according to Elliott Wave Theory), not the beginning of a new bear market.
The chart below describes the concept of Elliott Wave Theory in simple terms. Here is how the Profit Radar...