ETF Talk

Is the ‘Bear Market’ Already Over?

On December 24, 2018, the S&P 500 closed at 2,351.10. Much of the financial media pronounced a bear market that very day:
CNBC: We are Now in a Bear Market – December 24, 2018
Yahoo! Finance: S&P 500 Enters Bear Market: December 24, 2018
Investors Business Daily: S&P 500 Enters Bear...

How to Predict a Market Crash

Although I warned of an environment where the risk of a meltdown is high (wave 3 down, based on Elliott Wave Theory), I can’t claim credit for predicting the December crash.
Because of my multi-indicator approach to market forecasting, and profound concern for my subscriber’s portfolio’s, I...

Short-term S&P 500 Update

2018 has been a year of extremes. The year started with stocks becoming extremely over-bought, and ended with stocks getting extremely over-sold.
In fact, 2018 hosted the worst December performance since 1931.
The December 23 Profit Radar Report stated that:
“We are likely in an environment...

S&P 500 at ‘Make it or Break it’ Level

The S&P 500 has reached a seemingly important ‘make it or brake it’ zone. Here’s why:
For the last couple of weeks, I’ve been following two scenarios:
1) Washout decline with target of 2,500 – 2,500 (purple arrow, chart below)
2) Accelerating wave 3 lower (yellow arrow, chart below)
The two...

Crude Oil Could Fall Another 50%

Crude oil prices dropped 38% since October 3. The June 20, 2018 Profit Radar Report published the following analysis and projections:
“The two charts below show two possible longer-term Elliott Wave Theory counts:
The first one implies that a major top is in.
The second one implies that we’ll...

S&P 500: Does Low Fear Portend High Risk?

Below is a free excerpt of the December 9, Profit Radar Report, which takes a detailed look at various sentiment, liquidity, breadth and moment indicators to gauge the down side risk. Since this update is published out of context with all the other updates, an additional “Summary” section is...

Is the Inverted Yield Curve a Bear Market Signal

Bloomberg just called the inverted yield curve the ‘harbinger of doom.” Is this a fact or fear mongering?
What is an inverted yield curve?
In the investment world, there is generally a strong correlation between maturity and yield. Longer-term maturities pay more interest than shorter-term...

S&P 500: Long-term Explains Short-term

In late October we were looking for a strong counter trend rally (S&P 500 projection published here), and wanted to short the S&P 500 in the 2,830 – 2,850 zone (red bar). The S&P fell short of our target, and relapsed at 2,817.
This week we wanted to buy the S&P 500 after a...

S&P 500: Short-term Outlook

This is a short-term S&P 500 outlook. A longer-term S&P 500 outlook is available here.
Below is a close-up look at the long-term forward projection in the October 21 Profit Radar Report and here. The original projection (in yellow) is drawn on a daily chart (instead of weekly) to show...