Futures & FX

Trading Post-Fed Scare…

Was this a Fed scare or just “getting on with it”, or neither? The fed did not change the path that existed for their next policy move as communicated to us after the April meeting.
So what about all the concerns for everything that has been so inversely correlated to the Dollar which was rallying into the Fed Minutes and got a boost from the release?
As we wrestle with risk assets post Wednesday’s Fed minutes we clearly as looking...

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call Mat 17

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call Mat 17 - On the call we see sideways markets but a continued rally in commodities and resources. 
Industrial data better in the US today and we take the view the 2Q will continue this trend of growth and lead the recession bears to have to chase cyclical shorts....

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 18

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 18 - All eyes suddenly on the Fed with Fed Minutes today after 2pm and some fresh signs of hawks in the Fed atmosphere.
Plenty of implications for more Fed rather than less.
While we endorse less complacency in markets we see a difficult path for the Fed be...

Emerging Market Chart Review

Rates higher as we wait for Fed minutes.  Clearly the short end of the US curve is more fearful of the Fed than the long end. 
The 2yr note has moved 16bps off the bottom.  Another break here takes us to challenge the level that is where we were when the Fed was primed and ready to roll in...

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 19

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 19 - The day after the Fed Minutes release took market expectations well beyond where they were the day before despite this view from the Fed being significantly lagging and the content of the message being the same as the Fed statement in April.
Now what…do...

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 20

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 20  - On the call today we assess the week ahead as a set up for a true test of the market’s resolve around the Fed and not whetherthe they hike in June or not but the actual impact that 25bps should have on the Dollar and the markets at this point of the...

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 24

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 24 - Markets rallying with Brexit fears waning and China’s devalues fears looking like we never had anything to fear. 
We discuss these dynamics which might turn fear of June into just the opposite.
How the breakdown of correlation between Oil and the USD… ...

European Shares: What Was Tail Risk is Becoming Tailwind

Biggest beneficiary of waning Brexit fear is Europe.  IPO today in Germany better than expected and overall sentiment still on defensive despite ECB ready to roll out more Euros.

Watch the chart in $DB which has to be ripping the heart out of shorts here.
Remove China currency fears ( recent...

Crucial Time for Gold: Opportune Time For Miners?

Gold has suffered a swift 5.5% move in 7 sessions on the back of the Fed and some signs of more active policy.  The Dollar therefore has rallied 4% on the DXY and Gold therefore gets killed right?

Yes and no.  Gold has been beaten down but the rest of the inverse Dollar trades have hunt in...