Futures & FX

Trade Idea – Yandex

Yandex rallied 6.6% on Thursday as Geneva Ukraine talks yield first positive political developments in weeks from the core parties.  
The move in the stock was purely macro Russia related as investors in the US were rallying anything they could find that had exposure to an uplift in sentiment....

MXEF (MSCI EM) – The Four Year Chart Tells a Full Picture

We have sketched the MXEF index back to April of 2010 to encompass a period of peaking EM valuations in the fall of 2010, and the ensuing periods of stress from peaking PMIs, dramatically slowing China, Fed stress, local policy failures, and capital flows out.
Simply, EM peaked, slumped,...

Macro This Week = Uplift for Emerging Markets

As we see the US emerge from the winter hibernation (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Jobless Claims),  we are also seeing signs of Emerging Markets recovery on Macro. 
One implies the other and while China remains a weak spot, we do not think it’s a headwind anymore, its just not a...

Emerging Money Audio Call – April 18

Tim Seymour with your Emerging Money Audio for Friday April 18,  Today we  review the Chinese Internet index and we want to be playing off of the very positive Weibo (WB, quote) IPO yesterday pulling all the Chinese players higher today. 
We think if you look at the follow through from the...

Emerging Money Audio Call – April 18

Tim Seymour with your Emerging Money Audio for Friday April 18,  Today we  review the Chinese Internet index and we want to be playing off of the very positive Weibo (WB, quote) IPO yesterday pulling all the Chinese players higher today. 
We think if you look at the follow through from the...

Russia Rallying On Geneva Talks

Russian stocks in US afternoon trading have caught fire as the outcome from the Geneva discussions shows some tangible progress beyond merely a constructive tone that was all markets could have expected to gain from the event.  Clearly going into the Kerry/Lavrov summit there was a low bar on a...

Trade Update – Gold

Gold continues to see pressure from the US economy as the spring thaw is yielding strong macro from the formerly frozen US economy. 
Gold doesn’t like that…nor should gold investors who cannot get any yield from a gold investment…
 
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Russia – What Do Sanctions Mean? How We are Playing

As the US threatens to escalate sanctions, the question remains how effective sanctions can be, and what would be the scale of them. 
Red bridge quay in Moscow
I hosted a panel last week in NY with some of the most plugged in lawyers, US market players and deal makers in Russia, and here are...