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Leading Indicator: What the Yen Carry Trade Predicts for the S&P 500

Investors are always looking for leading indicators. Here’s one: The yen carry trade. This trade has been a recipe for success … until this week. Here’s what went wrong and what it says about stocks’ future. Here’s a look at Wall Street’s moneymaking recipe box. Always delicious (except for this week), the yen carry trade feast. The traditional yen carry trade is an interest rate play, where investors borrow yen and buy higher interest vehicles (which used to be U.S. Treasuries). But, interest rates around the globe are close to zero, so there’s no... -iSpyETF

Nasdaq VIX Soars to 5-Year Extreme

Investors may not be aware that there is a VIX volatility index that measures expected volatility (and fear) for the Nasdaq-100. Currently, investors fear a Nasdaq breakdown much more than an S&P 500 breakdown. In fact, fear is at a 5-year extreme. Here’s an intriguing phenomenon: Since March 14, the S&P 500 VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) dropped 19.1%. The Nasdaq-100 VIX (VXN) lost only 4.2% (see first chart). Since March 19, the S&P 500 VIX is down 4.7%, while the Nasdaq-100 VIX is up 11.5%. Just like the S&P 500 VIX, the Nasdaq VIX is... -iSpyETF

The Most Basic S&P 500 Indicator Turns ‘Red’

The market is been downright gnarly. Today’s performance shows once again the stock market’s #1 goal: Separate as many investors as possible from their money. Here’s how the market did it and how it could have been avoided. Driven by financials, the S&P 500 was the only major U.S. index to see a new high today. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were unable to overcome their previous high watermarks. Today’s lonesome S&P 500 all-time high (ATH) was a bull trap (at least for the short-term). Reason enough to take a closer look at the... -iSpyETF

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