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Trade Idea of the Day Presented by: Calculated Risk

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 7-13 April 2019, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 8-14 April 2018, the industry recorded the following... Read More

Jefferies still prefers Facebook in social, calls Twitter 'reasonably valued'

Social stocks have outperformed year-to-date, up ~55% versus the Nasdaq's rally of 20%, with Snap (SNAP) being the top performer up 120% after lagging the group in 2018, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill tells investors in a research note. The analyst continues to prefer share of Facebook (FB) in social with a Buy rating and $200 price target. He sees upside in average revenue per user and operating expenditure growth. Meanwhile, Thill is "incrementally positive" on Snap's "encouraging momentum," but says the company is "not out of the woods yet." If Snap can deliver on daily active user growth in Q1 it should be a catalyst for shares, however with the stock trading at nine-times...

Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in March"

Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.15 in March from –0.31 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from February, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.24 in March from –0.18 in February. This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in March (using the three-month average).According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic...

BLS: Unemployment Rates at New Series Lows in North Dakota, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Vermont

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in March in 6 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 41 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. North Dakota and Vermont had the lowest in March, 2.3 percent each. The rates in these two states, as well as those in Kentucky (4.0 percent) and Pennsylvania (3.9 percent), set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.5 percent. This graph shows the number of states...

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.139 Million Annual Rate in March

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000. This is 0.3 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,142,000 and is 14.2 percent below the March 2018 rate of 1,327,000. Single‐family housing starts in March were at a rate of 785,000; this is 0.4 percent below the revised February figure of 788,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 337,000. Building Permits: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were...

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Slight to moderate", Labor Market "Tight"

Economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April. While most Districts reported that growth continued at a similar pace as the previous report, a few Districts reported some strengthening. There was little change in the outlook among contacts in reporting Districts, with those expecting slight-to-modest growth in the months ahead. Reports on consumer spending were mixed but suggested sluggish sales for both general retailers and auto dealers. Reports on tourism...

Uber says to bring Apple Pay to Uber Eats

Mithat Ayok, Senior Product Manager, Uber (UBER), said in a statement: "At Eats, we're always thinking about ways to enhance your delivery experience. That's why we're bringing Apple Pay (AAPL) to our app, so you can pay for your order faster, more conveniently and securely. Apple Pay will be rolling out to customers in nearly 20 markets in the coming weeks. Riders who have been relying on Apple Pay since we combined forces in 2014 already know that paying in apps with Apple Pay is as simple as a glance with Face...

Wednesday: Trade Deficit, Beige Book

Wednesday: At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $53.7 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $51.1 billion in January. During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their...

Fly Intel: What to watch in IBM's earnings report

IBM (IBM) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal first quarter after the market close on April 16, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for: 1. FY19 CONSENSUS UP A TICK: Along with its last report, IBM guided for fiscal 2019 operating earnings per share of "at least" $13.90. At the time, analysts were expecting the company to report FY19 EPS of $13.84, but that consensus figure has since risen to $13.91. In addition, IBM guided for FY19 free cash flow of about $12B compared to the $11.9B it reported...

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