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The Channel

  1. Bill Holter Droppin’ Brand New Truth...

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Trade Idea of the Day Presented by: Momentum Trading with RaginCajun

Wins and Losses

Wins and losses come with this game and in order to be successful in this market you have to stay head strong. There’s nothing more frustrating than doing all the work, getting it right, only to have it taken from you in seconds... Read More

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q2

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (revised). ... The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private residential fixed investment...

This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor

– Shrinkflation has hit 2,500 products in five years – Not just chocolate bars that are shrinking – Toilet rolls, coffee, fruit juice and many other goods – Effects of shrinkflation been seen for “good number of years” – Consumer Association of Ireland – Shrinkflation is stealth inflation, form of financial fraud – Punishes vulnerable working and middle classes – Gold is hedge against inflation and shrinkflation “…Oompa Loompa doo-pa-dee doo…I’ve got another puzzle for you…”...

Amazon: Ugly Q3 Guidance Easily Predicted (& STOCK GUT-CHECKED -6%(+) FROM DAY'S HIGH)

Amazon guided to a potential Q3 operating loss of up to $400 million. Somehow, analysts were up at a consensus operating income of $950 million despite the historical knowledge that the company expands retail growth at the costs of profits. Maybe even worse, sales guidance for the quarter wasn't all that strong either, with mid-point guidance of only 24%. Clearly, the Prime Day event stole sales from the rest of the month versus generating a boost to revenues for the quarter...

Labor Disputes In China At All-Time-High

As Foxconn promises to bring 10s of thousands of jobs to Wisconsin amid billions of dollars of investment in new plants, one wonders what is going on in China that makes this economic (aside from the $3 billion 'incentives')... Perhaps this... Statista's Isabel von Kessel writes that in 2016, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS) in China registered 1.8 million labor disputes – an increase of almost 118 percent compared to the previous year...

"This Is Like Free Money" Jeff Gundlach Bought S&P Puts At VIX Lows

DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach tells Reuters that his firm bought some five-month put options on the S&P 500 a couple of days ago after VIX fell to lowest since December 1993. “This is like free money,” Jeffrey Gundlach said in phone interview with Reuters, noting that he lost money the first day but now is “doing great.” “We are in a seasonally weak period for stocks but more importantly, we think the VIX was really, really low. So the S&P puts are going long volatility”...

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Fifth consecutive month below 17 million SAAR

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Tuesday, August 1st. Note: There were 26 selling days in July 2017, the same as in July 2016. From WardsAuto: Forecast: July U.S. LV Sales Fall Behind Year-Ago. A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 16.9 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, following June’s 16.4 million SAAR and resulting in a 5-month streak of sub-17 million figures. July’s SAAR would be significantly lower than the 17.8 million...

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Moderately" in July

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded moderately with solid expectations for future activity. “We’ve now seen four months of steady gains following more rapid growth in factory activity earlier this year,” said Wilkerson. “Firms overall seem confident that moderate growth will continue.” ... The month-over-month composite index was 10 in July...

Gold- breaking above 6-year falling resistance

Below looks at the ratio of Gold compared to the US Dollar over the past 20-years. The ratio reflects that some long-term trends have taken place and the ratio is making an attempt to do something it hasn’t been able to accomplish in 6-years. The ratio broke above 6-year falling channel back in 2001 at (1) and then it proceeded to rally for the next 10-years. For the past 6-years, the ratio has continued to create a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (2). Currently the ratio is attempting to do something that it has not done in 6-years, which is a breakout above falling channel (2) at (3)...

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